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Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

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Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

95%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

54%

MetaculusM

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

Make a Prediction

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

Comments

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?