Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
🗳️
US Elections
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
83%
11
6 comments
6
Effective Institutions Project
Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?
58%
7
7 comments
7
When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?
2024-07-03
3
5 comments
5
AI in China
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-07-09
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-01-18
5
no comments
0
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
95%
4
2 comments
2
Chinese AI Chips
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?
31%
5
3 comments
3
Chinese AI Chips
Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?
Resolved :
No
12
42 comments
42
What will be the combined annual revenue of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?
Resolved :
Annulled
3
2 comments
2
AI in China
What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?
Resolved :
Below lower bound
3
8 comments
8
AI in China
Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?
Resolved :
Yes
5
22 comments
22
Load more