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Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?
47%
5
no comments
0
When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?
2025-05-07
12
14 comments
14
Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?
13%
17
22 comments
22
AI Technical Benchmarks
What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
338
4
7 comments
7
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
417
2
6 comments
6
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
When will 6DoF enabled virtual and augmented reality headset sales exceed 50 million units per year?
2030-11-17
3
no comments
0
When will a high frame rate film be awarded an Academy Award?
2030-08-04
10
7 comments
7
How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?
3.87
2
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
In January 2030, what will the Federal Reserves' Index be for industrial production of semiconductors and circuit boards?
591
1
no comments
0
AI Technical Benchmarks
A public prediction by Carl Shulman
3
no comments
0
Carl Shulman
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