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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
98%
218
147 comments
147
AGI Outcomes
Will RoboCup announce that robots have beaten professional human soccer players before 2050?
55%
34
57 comments
57
AGI Outcomes
When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?
2026-08-24
42
26 comments
26
AI Demonstrations
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
2028-01-12
91
71 comments
71
AGI Outcomes
If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?
20%
29
42 comments
42
Will there be more VR headset sales than AR headsets sales in 2025?
40%
22
25 comments
25
Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?
55%
37
26 comments
26
Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?
10%
18
37 comments
37
Will AI progress surprise us by predictions of AGI jumping sharply?
80%
88
90 comments
90
Public Perception of AI
Does P = NP?
5%
37
21 comments
21
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