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Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
83%
11
6 comments
6
Effective Institutions Project
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
4%
16
10 comments
10
Business of AI
When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?
2024-07-03
3
5 comments
5
AI in China
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-07-09
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-01-18
5
no comments
0
How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?
Q1 (FY2025, ends Apr 2024):
13.9
6
1 comment
1
Chinese AI Chips
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
95%
4
2 comments
2
Chinese AI Chips
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?
31%
5
3 comments
3
Chinese AI Chips
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
40.3%
Microsoft
28.6%
Meta
21%
13 others
5
8 comments
8
Future of AI
Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?
Resolved :
No
88
33 comments
33
AI Demonstrations
Of the top 10 AI companies, how many will pledge not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?
Resolved :
2
8
7 comments
7
Business of AI
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