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Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
83%
11
6 comments
6
Effective Institutions Project
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
4%
16
10 comments
10
Business of AI
When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?
2024-07-03
3
5 comments
5
AI in China
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-07-09
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-01-18
5
no comments
0
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
95%
4
2 comments
2
Chinese AI Chips
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?
31%
5
3 comments
3
Chinese AI Chips
Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?
9%
3
2 comments
2
Future of AI
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
2026
48.2%
2030
32%
2036
16%
9
2 comments
2
Future of AI
What will be the combined annual revenue of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?
Resolved :
Annulled
3
2 comments
2
AI in China
What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?
Resolved :
Below lower bound
3
8 comments
8
AI in China
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