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After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
33
47 comments
47
1d
1w
2m
all
Total Forecasters
275
Community Prediction
48
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Probability Density
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My Prediction
community
<3.3e-2
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>600
...
...
...
...
...
2.1%
12.34
47.97
158.8
11.3%
Background Info
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Ethics
Paul Christiano
Artificial intelligence
Computer science
Philosophy
Superintelligence
Robin Hanson
Nobel Prize
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Nick Bostrom
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Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Ethics
Paul Christiano
Artificial intelligence
Computer science
Philosophy
Superintelligence
Robin Hanson
Nobel Prize
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Nick Bostrom
Show more tags
Submit Tags Feedback
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