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Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
2%
48
17 comments
17
If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?
137k
9
11 comments
11
If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?
57%
26
38 comments
38
AGI Outcomes
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
20.8
44
35 comments
35
AGI Outcomes
Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?
1%
52
78 comments
78
Business of AI
In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?
9.22M
26
38 comments
38
Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?
3%
16
23 comments
23
AGI Outcomes
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
48
33
47 comments
47
AGI Outcomes
Will any jurisdiction adopt futarchy by 2070?
13%
18
13 comments
13
A public prediction by Robin Hanson
2
no comments
0
Robin Hanson
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