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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Are we in a simulated reality? Part I

resultNo

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%chance

Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?

99%chance

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

20.7
months

What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?

166
trillions $

Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?

13.1
billion years

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

29.9
months

The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec

no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

May 2044

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

45.3%chance