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Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
83%
11
6 comments
6
Effective Institutions Project
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
2%
48
17 comments
17
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
98%
218
147 comments
147
AGI Outcomes
Will RoboCup announce that robots have beaten professional human soccer players before 2050?
55%
34
57 comments
57
AGI Outcomes
When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?
2026-08-24
42
26 comments
26
AI Demonstrations
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
2028-01-12
91
71 comments
71
AGI Outcomes
Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?
55%
37
26 comments
26
Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?
10%
18
37 comments
37
Will AI progress surprise us by predictions of AGI jumping sharply?
80%
88
90 comments
90
Public Perception of AI
Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
35%
38
40 comments
40
Ragnarรถk Series
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