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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
98%
218
147 comments
147
AGI Outcomes
Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?
55%
37
26 comments
26
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
35%
38
40 comments
40
Ragnarök Series
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?
83%
19
17 comments
17
Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?
2%
36
26 comments
26
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
65%
19
13 comments
13
Ragnarök Series
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
8%
13
1 comment
1
Ragnarök Series
Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?
30%
31
19 comments
19
When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?
2074-09-01
24
26 comments
26
When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?
29%
10
18 comments
18
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