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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%chance

If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you "wake up"?

Ambiguous

Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?

57%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%chance

Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?

2%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%chance

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

30%chance

When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?

Mar 2070