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Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?
51%
26
21 comments
21
If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?
137k
9
11 comments
11
Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?
10%
3
8 comments
8
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
48
33
47 comments
47
AGI Outcomes
When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?
2064-08-30
10
13 comments
13
AGI Outcomes
Will transformative AI come with a bang?
13
5 comments
5
AI Progress Essay Contest
Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?
62%
12
5 comments
5
AI Demonstrations
When will a carbon price be paid on 50% or more of the world's carbon emissions?
2038-07-14
3
15 comments
15
Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?
Resolved :
No
6
2 comments
2
When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?
Resolved :
Oct 2, 2023
10
14 comments
14
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