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Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?
55%
37
26 comments
26
When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?
29%
10
18 comments
18
Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?
94%
40
48 comments
48
AGI Outcomes
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
20.8
44
35 comments
35
AGI Outcomes
What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?
165
10
8 comments
8
AGI Outcomes
Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?
34%
17
8 comments
8
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
48
33
47 comments
47
AGI Outcomes
A public prediction by Paul Christiano
4
2 comments
2
Paul Christiano
A public prediction by Paul Christiano
4
2 comments
2
Paul Christiano
A public prediction by Paul Christiano
3
no comments
0
Paul Christiano
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