M

Question

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

33
47
Total Forecasters275
Community Prediction48

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<3.3e-2
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>600
...
...
...
...
...
2.1%
12.34
47.97
158.8
11.3%
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Ethics
Paul Christiano
Artificial intelligence
Computer science
Philosophy
Superintelligence
Robin Hanson
Nobel Prize
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Nick Bostrom

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