Question

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

35 comments35

Total Forecasters229

Community Prediction20.8

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<3.3e-2

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>360

...

4.4%

4.37

20.83

130.7

16.7%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Robotics

Ethics

Paul Christiano

Artificial intelligence

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2028-04-13

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.43

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Robotics

Ethics

Paul Christiano

Artificial intelligence

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After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2028-04-13

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.43