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When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?
2026-08-24
42
26 comments
26
AI Demonstrations
Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
35%
38
40 comments
40
Ragnarรถk Series
Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?
10%
12
8 comments
8
When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?
2030-03-05
12
11 comments
11
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
20.8
44
35 comments
35
AGI Outcomes
When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?
2073-10-09
15
25 comments
25
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.43
14
25 comments
25
AGI Outcomes
50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
1.21k
17
19 comments
19
AGI Outcomes
When will 6DoF enabled virtual and augmented reality headset sales exceed 50 million units per year?
2030-11-17
3
no comments
0
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?
9.1e-2
6
14 comments
14
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