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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
20.8
44
35 comments
35
AGI Outcomes
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.43
14
25 comments
25
AGI Outcomes
50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
1.21k
17
19 comments
19
AGI Outcomes
Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?
99%
26
26 comments
26
AI Demonstrations
Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?
99%
41
69 comments
69
AI Demonstrations
How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31
77%
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31
50%
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31
30%
2 others
22
19 comments
19
Future of AI
Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years
26
10 comments
10
Research
Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?
2031
25%
2026
12.23%
9
3 comments
3
Business of AI
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
6
Oct 16, 2032
4
Jul 13, 2030
2
Aug 23, 2027
9
no comments
0
Future of AI