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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

20.7
months

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

4.16
years

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1376
hours

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%chance

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99%chance

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8

Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?

203112%
20263%

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

00