Group
Group
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
Forecast Timeline
Make a Prediction
| 25th | median | 75th | |
|---|---|---|---|
2032-09-08 ... | 2035-10-10 ... | 2042-05-03 ... | |
2031-02-13 ... | 2033-09-03 ... | 2037-05-29 ... | |
2027-11-30 ... | 2029-05-08 ... | 2031-04-16 ... | |
2025-03-14 ... | 2025-11-21 ... | 2027-07-09 ... |
My Prediction
community<2025-01-01
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2050-01-01
...
...
...
...
...
1.0%
2032-09-08 21:07
2035-10-10 10:07
2042-05-03 09:21
7.7%