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Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%
6
31 comments
31
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?
2028:
4.63M
5
no comments
0
Future of AI
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
6
Oct 16, 2032
4
Jul 13, 2030
2
Aug 23, 2027
9
no comments
0
Future of AI
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
8
Oct 10, 2035
6
Sep 3, 2033
4
May 8, 2029
1 other
6
no comments
0
Future of AI
Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?
6%
15
5 comments
5
AGI Outcomes
A public prediction by Yoshua Bengio
4
no comments
0
Yoshua Bengio
When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?
2028-05-23
13
18 comments
18
Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
18%
4 comments
4
Will the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU enact a universal basic income before 2030?
6%
14
17 comments
17
Will the United States enact a law that protects whistleblowers from disclosing to the general public potential harm to the public caused by an AI system before 2028?
14%
7
3 comments
3
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