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Will AI progress surprise us by predictions of AGI jumping sharply?

80%chance

Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

54%chance

Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?

76%chance

When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?

Ambiguous

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

95%chance

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

20.7
months

What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?

166
trillions $

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.34
years

Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?

65%chance

As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?

resultJun 2030