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Will AI progress surprise us by predictions of AGI jumping sharply?
80%
88
90 comments
90
Public Perception of AI
Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?
77%
20
24 comments
24
AGI Outcomes
Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?
94%
40
48 comments
48
AGI Outcomes
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
20.8
44
35 comments
35
AGI Outcomes
What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?
165
10
8 comments
8
AGI Outcomes
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?
1.4
6
6 comments
6
AGI Outcomes
Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?
60%
13
56 comments
56
AGI Outcomes
When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?
2029-09-06
27
24 comments
24
Situational Awareness
If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?
75%
4
10 comments
10
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-10-28
171
470 comments
470
AGI Outcomes
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