Question

When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction2024-07-03

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2026-01-01

...

2024-02-29 23:47

2024-07-03 13:37

2024-11-05 15:25

1.5%

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

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AI in China

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence

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2024-12-15

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

11.5

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