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Commercial speech recognition to soon be better than human?

Ambiguous

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%chance

When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?

result02 Oct 2018

Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019?

result50.1

Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated before 2051?

36%chance

Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?

resultNo

What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?

result15.21

By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?

resultNo

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

09 Dec 2026

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?

resultYes