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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
98%
218
147 comments
147
AGI Outcomes
Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated before 2051?
36%
13
7 comments
7
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2028-04-13
195
430 comments
430
AI Progress Essay Contest
When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
2026-05-13
10
8 comments
8
AI Technical Benchmarks
Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
63%
46
57 comments
57
AI Demonstrations
How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?
110k
1
12 comments
12
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
2024-06-05
14
8 comments
8
AI Demonstrations
What will be the best perplexity score by a language model on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024?
10.9
5
3 comments
3
AI Technical Benchmarks
Where is the AGI Roadmap?
5
2 comments
2
AI Progress Essay Contest
Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?
8
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
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