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Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
83%
11
6 comments
6
Effective Institutions Project
When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?
2024-07-03
3
5 comments
5
AI in China
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-07-09
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-01-18
5
no comments
0
Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?
5%
18
34 comments
34
Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?
Yes, still owned by foreign adversary
52.3%
No
22.1%
Yes, non-adversary owner
10%
8
9 comments
9
Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?
Resolved :
No
26
63 comments
63
Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?
Resolved :
No
12
8 comments
8
Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?
Resolved :
Yes
20
24 comments
24