Question

Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction4%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Before mid-2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

55%

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

32%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Nvidia CEO hints at possibility using Samsung to make GPUs

Korea Herald•Sep 12, 2024

Jensen Huang says if 'anything were to happen' in Taiwan, Nvidia could have GPUs made somewhere else

Business Insider•Sep 12, 2024

The Chinese Chipmaker at the Heart of the U.S.-China Tech War

New York Times•Sep 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before mid-2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

55%

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

32%