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Before mid-2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?
10k / month
27.8%
30k / month
16%
300k / year
14%
2 others
10
12 comments
12
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates?
2032
60%
2026
40%
2024
5%
5
6 comments
6
Regulation of AI
Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?
58%
7
7 comments
7
Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?
4%
2
2 comments
2
AI in China
Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?
32%
9
3 comments
3
Chinese AI Chips
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?
≤5 nm
98%
≤3 nm
81%
≤2 nm
28.3%
10
4 comments
4
Chinese AI Chips
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
13%
Amazon Web Services
10%
Microsoft Azure
8%
1 other
6
no comments
0
Chinese AI Chips
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD
2%
Nvidia
2%
Google
1%
7
1 comment
1
Chinese AI Chips
How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024?
Q2 (ends Jun 2024):
1.74M
6
3 comments
3
Chinese AI Chips
How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024?
Q1 (ends Mar 2024):
6
no comments
0
Chinese AI Chips
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