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Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

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Forecast Timeline

OpenAI GPT-4, not optional

Anthropic AI Claude, not optional

Anthropic AI Claude, optional

OpenAI GPT-4, optional

GitHub Copilot, optional

GitHub Copilot, not optional

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
OpenAI GPT-4, not optional	15%

Anthropic AI Claude, not optional	11%

Anthropic AI Claude, optional	8%

OpenAI GPT-4, optional	5%

GitHub Copilot, optional	2%

GitHub Copilot, not optional	1%

Authors:

KirillYakunin

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Business of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Computer science

Cyber-security regulation

Information theory

OpenAI

Chatbot

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

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