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What will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House for the calendar year 2028?
10.8
23
20 comments
20
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?
83%
19
17 comments
17
Meet Metaculus Developer Partner Ought
12
2 comments
2
Metaculus Meta
Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?
5%
23
29 comments
29
By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?
15%
20
23 comments
23
Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography
12
no comments
0
Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
76%
10
22 comments
22
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?
OpenAI GPT-4, not optional
15%
Anthropic AI Claude, not optional
11%
Anthropic AI Claude, optional
8%
3 others
6
1 comment
1
Business of AI
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
91%
21
13 comments
13
AI Safety
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?
83%
6
1 comment
1
Regulation of AI
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