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Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?
49%
15
23 comments
23
AI Demonstrations
January 26, 2023 Virtual Metaculus Meetup
5
1 comment
1
Metaculus Meta
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?
OpenAI GPT-4, not optional
15%
Anthropic AI Claude, not optional
11%
Anthropic AI Claude, optional
8%
3 others
6
1 comment
1
Business of AI
When will DeepMind Sparrow chatbot be available outside Alphabet?
2024-09-25
3 comments
3
Business of AI
Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?
1%
7
15 comments
15
The Role of Special Tokens in LLMs
1
no comments
0
When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
2025-01-29
55
97 comments
97
Effective Institutions Project
When will a humanoid robot be created that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans?
2052-09-10
8
15 comments
15
AGI Outcomes
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%
6
2 comments
2
AI Safety
Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?
24%
5
10 comments
10
Regulation of AI
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