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Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

60%chance

When will OpenAI next update its approach to alignment research?

result24 Feb 2023 12:00

Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?

resultYes

Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?

Annulled

Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?

resultYes

Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?

resultNo

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?

resultNo

Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?

resultNo

Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?

resultYes

Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?

resultYes