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Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Forecast Timeline

≤5 nm

≤3 nm

≤2 nm

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
≤5 nm	98%

≤3 nm	81%

≤2 nm	28.3%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Nvidia

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation

Samsung Electronics

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

70%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Comments

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Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Nvidia

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation

Samsung Electronics

Nvidia CEO hints at possibility using Samsung to make GPUs

Korea Herald•Sep 12, 2024

Jensen Huang says if 'anything were to happen' in Taiwan, Nvidia could have GPUs made somewhere else

Business Insider•Sep 12, 2024

The semiconductor industry faces its biggest technical challenge yet

Economist•Sep 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

70%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%