Question

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters13

Community Prediction72%

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50%

community: 72%

Authors:

will_aldred elifland

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Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Energy

Johnathan Francke

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Natural language processing

Physics

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

85%

Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred elifland

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Energy

Johnathan Francke

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Natural language processing

Physics

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Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

85%