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When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
2026-05-13
10
8 comments
8
AI Technical Benchmarks
How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?
110k
1
12 comments
12
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
Where is the AGI Roadmap?
5
2 comments
2
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI Safety ∩ AI/DL Research
10
7 comments
7
AI Progress Essay Contest
Deep Learning ourselves into the unknown
3
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?
72%
6
5 comments
5
Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra
25%
Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus
20%
OpenAI / GPT-5
9%
19
31 comments
31
Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
55
63 comments
63
AI Technical Benchmarks
How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
Resolved :
3.94k
4
6 comments
6
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
Resolved :
8.07k
3
7 comments
7
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
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