Group

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

Forecast Timeline

Tesla

Waymo

Any Service

Make a Prediction

	25th	median	75th
Any Service	2025-05-16 ...	2026-10-24 ...	2029-01-23 ...
Tesla	2025-12-26 ...	2027-07-08 ...	2029-12-16 ...
Waymo	2025-02-16 ...	2026-11-22 ...	2028-10-21 ...

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2034-12-23

...

2025-05-16 20:06

2026-10-24 03:14

2029-01-23 20:43

7.6%

Authors:

isinlor

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

3.73

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2038-05-26

When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?

2030-07-16

Comments

? comments

Authors:

isinlor

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

So you want to ride a self-driving taxi? How Waymo compares in our tests.

Washington Post•Sep 12, 2024

Waymo and Uber expand their robotaxi partnership to Austin and Atlanta

Verge•Sep 13, 2024

Uber to Launch Driverless Rides in Austin, Atlanta With Waymo

Bloomberg•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

3.73

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2038-05-26

When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?

2030-07-16