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When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?
2030-03-05
12
11 comments
11
When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?
2073-10-09
15
25 comments
25
When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?
2030-07-16
12
7 comments
7
AI Demonstrations
What will be the average US labor force participation rate for the decade 2040-2049?
50.1
9
7 comments
7
Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?
3%
16
23 comments
23
AGI Outcomes
What percentage of the US workforce will be in building maintenance or construction trades in 2050?
3.98
5
1 comment
1
Erik Hoel's 2050 Predictions Series
When will a general purpose robotic manipulator be available, at a price under 1k (2022 USD)?
2031-12-17
13
19 comments
19
When will Basic Post Scarcity Economy be achieved by a nation state?
2116-02-03
-5
42 comments
42
What will be the annual US unemployment rate in 2027?
6.05
5
2 comments
2
When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
Tesla
Jul 8, 2027
Waymo
Nov 22, 2026
Any Service
Oct 24, 2026
11
94 comments
94
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