Question

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters71

Community Prediction3%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

88%

Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

A public prediction by Robin Hanson

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence

OpenAI is showing that the AI race is survival of the richest

Business Insider•Sep 12, 2024

11xAI raises $24M led by Benchmark to build AI digital employees

TechCrunch•Sep 16, 2024

OpenAI's o1 model is inching closer to humanlike intelligence — but don't get carried away

Business Insider•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

88%