Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

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Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction60%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Methodology

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Literature

Science

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Comments

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Methodology

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Literature

Science

Biden’s Legacy: the Decline of Arms Control and Disarmament

CounterPunch•Sep 13, 2024

Harris, Trump & the Race to Oblivion

Consortium News•Sep 16, 2024

Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, and the Armageddon Agenda

AntiWar•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%