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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Has new a planetary-mass object been discovered in the outer solar system?

resultNo

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%chance

Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?

38%chance

Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated before 2051?

36%chance

Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?

resultNo

Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?

3%chance

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

55%chance

Introducing the Metaculus Journal Podcast

12
no comments0

Introducing Community Manager Evan Harper

21
6 comments6
Metaculus Meta

Will the finding in Bastian et al. (2012) that meat consumption is related to the denial of minds replicate?

Study 258.3%
Study 153%