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Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%chance

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3%chance

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

89%chance

What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?

0.169%

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

0.178%

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.456%

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

8.65
weapons

Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?

Annulled

Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?

Annulled

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

282 kt