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Nuclear Technology & Risks
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Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
28%
8
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
4%
7
2 comments
2
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will the next non-test detonation of a stateโs nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?
80%
2
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?
1.69e-1
3
11 comments
11
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?
2.19e-1
4
5 comments
5
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?
4.27e-1
9
13 comments
13
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?
9.93
14
4 comments
4
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?
271
3
2 comments
2
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
1.82e-1
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?
60%
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
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