Question

When will at least 10 countries formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state?

6 comments6

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction2046-02-27

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2069-12-31

...

2031-04-30 07:00

2046-02-27 01:27

2064-03-26 04:27

22.1%

Authors:

jmason

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?

26%

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

10%

How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?

11.7

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