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Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?
13%
9
25 comments
25
When will at least 10 countries formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state?
2046-02-27
4
6 comments
6
Verity
Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
40%
8
16 comments
16
Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years
26
10 comments
10
Research
Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
65%
Democratic Republic of Congo
60%
52 others
29
208 comments
208
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
70%
Mali
68%
Libya
60%
70 others
19
59 comments
59
Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World
2
no comments
0
Metaculus Journal
Will any member country leave BRICS before 2035?
70%
3
18 comments
18
Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?
3%
9
15 comments
15
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World
9
9 comments
9
Metaculus Journal
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