Question

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction2.19e-1

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

3.163e-2

2.186e-1

5.866e-1

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

2.69e-2

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

4.27e-1

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

2.69e-2

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

4.27e-1