Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
🗳️
US Elections
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
8%
13
1 comment
1
Ragnarök Series
Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?
30%
31
19 comments
19
If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?
88.6
14
16 comments
16
If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?
35.8
17
15 comments
15
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
22%
58
68 comments
68
By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?
15%
20
23 comments
23
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?
2.19e-1
4
5 comments
5
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
47%
6
6 comments
6
Ragnarök Series
Nuclear proliferation, force sizes, & yields
6
6 comments
6
Nuclear Risk Tournament
How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?
3.87
2
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Load more