Question

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

68 comments68

Total Forecasters428

Community Prediction22%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 22%

median 22.0%mean 28.9%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Tactical nuclear weapon

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

9.93

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Tactical nuclear weapon

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

America Should Avoid, Not Fight, Future Nuclear Wars

American Conservative•Sep 12, 2024

Russia 'must show it is willing to use nuclear weapons against countries that support Ukraine and CAN hit NATO countries with a tactical nuke without sparking Armageddon'

Daily Mail•Sep 13, 2024

Biden’s Legacy: the Decline of Arms Control and Disarmament

CounterPunch•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

9.93

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%