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What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?
48.7
6
4 comments
4
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
22%
58
68 comments
68
Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?
73%
9
15 comments
15
When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?
2025-12-31
4
9 comments
9
When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?
2045-12-05
15
10 comments
10
Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?
67%
9
12 comments
12
What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?
8.35e-1
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
2052-09-01
5
2 comments
2
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
2037-05-28
3
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?
Level 3
30%
Level 2
5%
Level 1
1%
10
9 comments
9
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