Group

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

14 comments14

Forecast Timeline

2050

2040

2035

2030

2025

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
2050	95%

2040	90%

2035	84%

2030	60%

2025	1%

Authors:

blednotik

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Metaculus

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI

Metaculus

Chatbot

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2030-01-12

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

83%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

blednotik

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Metaculus

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI

Metaculus

Chatbot

The Long Road to Genuine AI Mastery

Time•Sep 12, 2024

OpenAI unveils o1, a model that can fact-check itself

TechCrunch•Sep 13, 2024

OpenAI Unveils New ChatGPT That Can Reason Through Math and Science

New York Times•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2030-01-12

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

83%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?