Question

Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?

Resolved :No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction0%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

48.7

Community Peer Score

19.2

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Kevin McCarthy (California politician)

Nancy Pelosi

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Yu Shyi-kun

Legislative Yuan

Speaker of the US House of Representatives

Taiwan

United States

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

41%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Kevin McCarthy (California politician)

Nancy Pelosi

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Yu Shyi-kun

Legislative Yuan

Speaker of the US House of Representatives

Taiwan

United States

Déjà Vu for Mike Johnson as Internal Strife Stalls Spending Plan

New York Times•Sep 13, 2024

A Decision to Make: House Speaker Mike Johnson's government funding bill divides Republicans

FOX News•Sep 13, 2024

The Republicans’ “China Week”

CounterPunch•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

41%