Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
🗳️
US Elections
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?
2035
4%
2030
2%
3
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?
Resolved :
No
11
7 comments
7
Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?
Resolved :
No
6
5 comments
5
Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?
Resolved :
No
9
28 comments
28
Verity
Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?
Resolved :
Yes
18
79 comments
79
[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?
Kevin McCarthy (R)
Yes
Don Bacon (R)
No
Jim Jordan (R)
No
10 others
18
75 comments
75
Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?
Resolved :
No
5
7 comments
7
[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?
Mike Johnson (R)
Yes
Kevin Hern (R)
Annulled
Jim Banks (R)
No
18 others
15
124 comments
124
condition
Next US Speaker of the House? (Steve Scalise (R))
Resolved :
No
if yes
if no
US Government Shutdown Before 2024?
43%
43%
Resolved :
Annulled
US Government Shutdown Before 2024?
65%
65%
Resolved :
No
1
1 comment
1