Question

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

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Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction2052-09-01

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2100-01-01

...

2033-10-01 17:37

2052-09-01 08:43

2081-08-15 22:38

18.9%

Authors:

casens

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Health & Pandemics

Environment & Climate

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

36%

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

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