Question

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

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Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction22%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 21.9%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

21%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

America Should Avoid, Not Fight, Future Nuclear Wars

American Conservative•Sep 12, 2024

Biden’s Legacy: the Decline of Arms Control and Disarmament

CounterPunch•Sep 13, 2024

Harris, Trump & the Race to Oblivion

Consortium News•Sep 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

21%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28