Question

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters54

Community Prediction72%

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50%

community: 72%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%

How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

North Korea releases rare glimpse of Kim Jong Un touring secret nuclear weapons facility

USA Today•Sep 13, 2024

Kim Jong Un Wants More Nukes - What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Red State•Sep 13, 2024

US, UK fears Russia may be helping Iran’s nuclear weapons program: report

New York Post•Sep 17, 2024

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Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

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