Question

Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?

37 comments37

Total Forecasters145

Community Prediction95%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Public Perception of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Soviet Union

Artificial intelligence arms race

Artificial intelligence

Sputnik 1

Computer science

Google Trends

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.21k

Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?

70%

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

2029-09-06

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Public Perception of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Soviet Union

Artificial intelligence arms race

Artificial intelligence

Sputnik 1

Computer science

Google Trends

The Long Road to Genuine AI Mastery

Time•Sep 12, 2024

The truth behind the future of AI that no one wants to tell you— explained!

New York Post•Sep 15, 2024

AI has propelled chip architecture towards a tighter bond with software

Economist•Sep 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.21k

Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?

70%

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

2029-09-06